Evaluating proximity to Artificial General Intelligence by tracing human employment indices across leading frontier AI research labs.
The barometer operates on a clean premise: if AGI were imminent and capable of automating human-level tasks, AI companies would automate their own software engineering, operations, and marketing listings.
A declining trend in job listings (Q3 < Peak) increases AGI probability. Conversely, continuous expansion of the human workforce (Q3 ≥ Peak) pushes the estimated arrival of autonomous AGI further back.
As of the June 22 cutoff date, the industry combined probability stands at 7.55%.
This is driven by a massive hiring freeze at Google DeepMind (-72.8% QoQ) and a gradual contraction at xAI (-14.6% QoQ). Both labs show strong local indicators of automation or organizational consolidation.
Meanwhile, OpenAI (+7.9% QoQ) continues to scale its human labor demands. Anthropic has slightly pulled back from its Q2 peak (-13.2% QoQ) but remains significantly above its Q1 starting levels, resulting in a mild local AGI probability of 13.23%.