RC's hiring-based hypothesis: fewer frontier-lab job listings might hint at automation. Not a forecast or a real probability.
Solid dots and dashed segment: live count on the latest date. Hollow points: earlier repo values, unverified, method unknown.
The hiring-drop index measures how far a lab's latest listing count sits below its highest count so far. 0% means listings are at their peak; 100% would mean no listings left. It is not a probability of AGI.
If a lab's peak is 0 or its latest count is missing, no index is computed (shown as "no data"). The combined index applies the same formula to the summed counts of labs with a fresh count.
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Listings can change for many reasons: budgets, recruiting cycles, new offices or restructuring. A drop would not prove automation, and a rise does not rule it out.
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